Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Unit F1: Social indicators: Methodology and development; Relations with users

Eurostat - the statistical office of the European Union.

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EUROPOP2023 are the latest Eurostat long-term population projections produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland), covering the time horizon from 2022 to 2100. Population projections are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, and net migration. They are presented for a long time period that covers more than a half-century (50 years).

The datasets consist of the baseline population projections and five sensitivity tests, which are described as follows:

• no migration – it is assumed that net migration is zero for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower migration – it is assumed that the net migration is lower due to a 33% reduction in non-EU immigration flows for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;  
• higher migration – it is assumed that the net migration is higher due to a 33% increase in non-EU immigration flows for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower fertility – it is assumed that the fertility rates are lower 20% than the baseline assumptions for each year within the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower mortality – it is assumed that the mortality rates are lower resulting in an increase of approximately two years in life expectancy at birth by 2070 compared to the baseline assumptions.

In each sensitivity test, the assumptions for the year 2022 were maintained as in the baseline projections. This is because, for that year, there is a combination of observed data (i.e. beneficiaries on temporary protections at the end of December 2022), information from the national authorities, and forecasting.

Data are available by single-year time interval, as detailed below:

• Projected population on 1 January by age and sex;
• Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, age-specific mortality rates and net migration levels;
• Projected life expectancy by age (in completed years) and sex.

Additionally, the demographic balances and indicators are available for the baseline projections and each of the five sensitive variants, including also:

• Total numbers of the projected live births and deaths;
• Projected population structure indicators including proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median ages of the population (for each sex component).

STP2024 are the short-term population projections covering the time horizon from 2023 to 2050, and produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland). Similar to long-term projections, these are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality and net migration. The latest demographic data published on Eurostat website, as of 06 September 2024, were used as input in building the assumptions, thereby including the published post-2021 census revisions and data related to the temporary protection granted to persons displaced from Ukraine due to Russia's invasion.

The dataset (proj_stp24) includes data by single-year time interval for two types of projections:

• Baseline projections:
  • Projected total population on 1 January, the working-age population (defined as persons aged from 15 to 74), and its share in the total population;
  • Assumptions on total fertility rates, life expectancy at birth by sex, and total net migration levels;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

• No migration sensitivity test – it is assumed that the net migration is zero for each year within the 2024-2050 time horizon.
  • Projected total population on 1 January, the working-age population (defined as persons aged from 15to 74), and its share in the total population;
  • The 2023 net migration levels remain the same as in the baseline projections to reflect the nowcast data;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

STP2025 are the latest short-term population projections covering the time horizon from 2024 to 2050, produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland). Similar to long-term projections, these are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and structure based on a set of assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, and net migration. The latest demographic data published on Eurostat website as of 15 May 2025, were used as input in building the assumptions, thereby including the published post-2021 census revisions and data related to temporary protection granted to persons displaced from Ukraine due to Russia's invasion.

The dataset (proj_stp25) includes data by single-year time interval for two types of projections:

• Baseline projections:
  • Projected total population on 1 January, working-age population (15-74 years) and its share in the total population;
  • Assumptions on total fertility rates, life expectancy at birth by sex, and total net migration levels;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

• No migration sensitivity test – it is assumed that the net migration is zero in each year of the 2025-2050 time horizon.
  • Projected total population on 1 January, working-age population (15-74 years) and its share in the total population;
  • The 2024 net migration levels remain as in the baseline projections to reflect the nowcast data;
  • Total numbers of projected live births and deaths.

The territorial breakdown of the countries follows the (EU) Regulation No 1260/2013 on European demographic statistics.

Demography.

EUROPOP2023

• Base population on 1 January 2022 refers to the population of the country for the reference year 2021, as reported to Eurostat by the national statistical authorities in the annual demographic data collection.
• The age-specific fertility rate is defined as the ratio between the number of live births occurring to women between ages x and x+1 and the number of person-years lived by women between ages x and x+1 during one calendar year.
• The age-specific mortality rate is defined as the ratio between the number of deaths between ages x and x+1 and the number of person-years lived in the age interval x and x+1 during one calendar year.
• Life expectancy at age x represents the average number of additional years of life that a survivor to age x will live beyond the age x, assuming the mortality conditions remain constant.
• Median age is defined as the age x such that exactly one half of the population is older than x and the other half is younger than x.
• Proportion of population in each of the main demographic age groups is calculated as the number of persons in specific age groups — children (0–14 years), young persons (0-19 years), persons in the working-age (15–64 years, and 20-64 years), elderly persons (65 years and over), and oldest-old persons (80 years and over) — divided by the total population, expressed as percentage.
• Young age dependency ratio is defined as the ratio between number of young persons (0-14 or 0-19 years old) divided by the number of persons conventionally considered of working-age (15-64 or 20-64 years old). Data available in the online table (proj_23ndbi) are:
  • 1st variant: The young-age dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 0-14 divided to the number of working-age persons aged 15-64;
  • 3rd variant: The young-age-dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 0-19 divided to the number of working-age persons aged 20-64.
• Old age dependency ratio is defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 and over (the elderly population) and the number of persons aged 15-64 (the conventionally working-age population). It is usually expressed as the number of elderly persons per 100 working-age persons. Data available in the online table (proj_23ndbi) are:
  • 1st variant: The old-age-dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 65 years and over divided by the number of working-age persons aged 15-64 years;
  • 3rd variant: The old-age-dependency ratio is computed as the number of persons aged 65 years and over divided by the number of working-age persons aged 20-64 years.

• Total age dependency ratio is defined as the sum of young and old age dependency ratios.

STP2024

• Base population on 1 January 2023 refers to the total population of the country for the reference year 2022, as reported to Eurostat by the national statistical authorities in the annual demographic data collection. 
• Population in the working-age is defined as persons aged from 15 to 74 years, in accordance with the age group specified for the STP2024 purpose.
• Proportion of population in the working-age is defined as the ratio of the number of persons aged 15 to 74 to the total population, expressed as a percentage.
• Total fertility rate is defined as the average number of children that would be born alive to a woman during her lifetime if she were to experience the fertility rates of a given year and was not subject to mortality during her childbearing years.
• Life expectancy at birth is the average number of years a newborn is assumed to live if subjected throughout his or her life to the mortality assumptions. 

STP2025

• Base population on 1 January 2024 refers to the total population of the country for the reference year 2023, as reported to Eurostat by national statistical authorities in the annual demographic data collection.
• Population in the working-age is defined as persons aged from 15 to 74 years, in accordance with the age group specified for the STP2025 purpose.
• Proportion of population in the working-age is defined as the ratio of the number of persons aged 15 to 74 to the total population, expressed as a percentage.
• Total fertility rate is defined as the average number of children that would be born alive to a woman during her lifetime if she were to experience the fertility rates of a given year and was not subject to mortality during her childbearing years.
• Life expectancy at birth is the average number of years a newborn is assumed to live if subjected throughout his or her life to the mortality assumptions. 

The statistical unit used is 'person' for data related to population, net migration, and vital events such as live births and deaths.

Statistical population is total population on 1 January as defined in 3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions.

EU Members States and EFTA countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland)

EUROPOP2023: covers the years from 2022 to 2100.

STP2024: covers the years from 2023 to 2050.

STP2025: covers the years from 2024 to 2050.

EUROPOP2023: 1 January 2022

STP2024: 1 January 2023

STP2025: 1 January 2024

See Council conclusions of 18 June 2021 on the fiscal sustainability challenges arising from ageing.

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EUROPOP2023

• March 2023: Release of the baseline projections.
• May 2023: Release of the no migration, lower migration, higher migration, lower fertility, and lower mortality sensitivity tests.

STP2024

• September 2024: Release of the baseline projections.
• October 2024: Release of no migration sensitivity test.

STP2025

• May 2025: Release of both the baseline projections and no migration sensitivity test.

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EUROPOP2023: EU's population projected to drop by 6% by 2100 - news article on Eurostat website.

Population projections in EU - Statistics explained article on Eurostat website.

The information related to population projections can be found on the Eurostat website under the "Population projections" section within the "Population and social conditions" domain.

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The methodology for population projections in the EU is detailed in the Population projections in the EU - methodology article, which can be found on the Eurostat website within the "Statistics Explained" section.

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Population projections help the public, statisticians, and policymakers in understanding the population dynamics. They contribute to informed debates on demographic and societal changes.

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The population projection datasets specific to a base-year remain unchanged after their dissemination.

The population projections datasets specific to a base-year remain unchanged after their dissemination. The latest relevant input data available on the Eurostat website are considered during the production of population projections. Any revisions to the input data following the dissemination of population projections datasets are not considered for updating the projections data already released. Therefore, each population projections exercise takes into account the latest data published on the Eurostat website, as well as nowcast data transmitted by national statistical institutes for projection purposes.

Eurostat database.

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