Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Unit F2: Population and migration

Eurostat - Office statistique de l’Union européenne

5, rue Alphone Weicker

L-2721 Luxembourg

EUROPOP2023 are the latest Eurostat population projections produced at national level for 30 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and three European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries (Iceland, Norway and Switerland), covering the time horizon from 2022 to 2100.

Population projections are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and its structure based on a sets of assumptions for fertility, mortality and net migration; they are presented for a long time period that covers more than a half-century (50 years).

The datasets are composed by the baseline population projections and five sensitivity tests, namely:

• no migration – it is assumed that the net migration is zero in each year of the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower migration – it is assumed that the net migration is lower due to 33% decrease applied to the non-EU immigration flows, in each year of the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• higher migration – it is assumed that the net migration is higher due to 33% increase applied to the non-EU immigration flows, in each year of the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower fertility - it is assumed that the fertility rates are lower 20% than in the baseline assumptions, in each year of the 2023-2100 time horizon;
• lower mortality - it is assumed that the mortality rates are lower such that the life expectancy at birth will increase of about two years by 2070 when compared with the baseline assumptions.

In each sensitivitiy test, the assumptions for the year 2022 were kept as in the baseline projections, as for this year there is a mix of observed data (i.e. beneficiaries on temporary protections at the end of December 2022), information from the national authorities and forecasting.

Data are available by single year time interval, as follows:

• Projected population on 1 January by age and sex;
• Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, age-specific mortality rates and net migration levels;
• Projected life expectancy by age (in completed years) and sex.

Moreover, the demographic balances and indicators are available for the baseline projections and the five sensitive variants:

• Total numbers of the projected live births and deaths;
• Projected population structure indicators: proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median ages of the population (for each sex component).

The territorial breakdown of the countries is according to the (EU) Regulation No 1260/2013 on European demographic statistics.

Demography.

EUROPOP2023

Base population on 1 January 2022 is the population of the country as reported in the annual demographic statistics data collection run by Eurostat.

The age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) is defined as the ratio between the number of live births occurring to women between ages x and x+1 and the number of person-years lived by women between  ages x and x+1, over one calendar year.

The age-specific mortality rate (ASMR) for a given population, a given age, and a given year, refers to the number of deaths in that year to people of that age for every 1000 people of that age.

The projected life expectancy by age in completed years is derived from the life expectancy as from the period-cohort life table by applying an estimated age-specific gap between these two measures of life expectancy. The projected life expectancy by age in completed years is provided for the convenience of the users, but it is not the outcome of a regular computation of a life table and it represent only an approximated measure of a life expectancy computed on age-period mortality data.

Median age is defined as the age x such that exactly one half of the population is older than x and the other half is younger than x.

Proportion of population in each of the main demographic age groups is the number of - respectively - children (0–14 years), young persons (0-19 years), two age groups for persons in the working-age (15–64 years, and 20-64 years ), elderly (65 years and over) and oldest-old persons (80 years and over) in the total population.

Young-age-dependency ratio - two ratios are available according to the age groups used to classify the persons as 'young' and in the 'working-age':

1) the young-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 0-14 over the number of working-age persons (15-64 years);

2) the young-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 0-19 over the number of working-age persons (20-64 years);

Old-age-dependency ratio - two ratios are available according to the age group used to define the persons in the 'working-age':

1) the old-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 years and more over the number of working-age persons (15-64 years);

2) the old-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 years and more over the number of working-age persons (20-64 years);

Total age-dependency ratio is defined as the sum of young- and old- age dependency ratios, based on the common age group used to define the persons in the 'working age'.

The statistical unit varies according to the data type as follows:

• Person - for data referring to the projected population and net migration;
• Number of demographic events - for data referring to the projected number of live births and deaths;

Statistical population is the projected total population on 1 January as defined in 3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions.

EU Members States and EFTA countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland)

EUROPOP2023: from the year 2022 to 2100.

EUROPOP2023: 1 January 2022.

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EUROPOP2023

• March 2023: release of baseline projections
• May 2023: release of the zero net migration, lower migration, higher migration, lower fertility and lower mortality sensitivity tests.

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EU's population projected to drop by 6% by 2100 - news article on Eurostat website

Population projections in the EU - Statistics explained article on Eurostat website

Eurostat website under the folder 'Population projections' of the 'Population and social conditions" domain:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography-migration-projections/population-projections-data

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Population projections in the EU - methodology - Statistics explained article on Eurostat website

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Population projections help the public, statisticians and policymakers understand population dynamics. They contribute to informed debates on demographic and societal changes.

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Eurostat database.

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