Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Unit F2: Population and migration.

Eurostat - Office statistique de l’Union européenne

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L-2721 Luxembourg

EUROPOP2019 are the latest Eurostat population projections produced at national and subnational levels for 31 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and four European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries, covering the time horizon from 2019 to 2100.

Population projections are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and its structure based on a sets of assumptions for fertility, mortality and net migration; they are presented for a long time period that covers more than a half-century (50 years).

The datasets at national level are composed by the baseline population projections and five sensitivity tests, namely:

• no migration – it is assumed that the net migration is set to zero in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• lower migration – it is assumed that the net migration is 33% lower than in the baseline assumptions, in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• higher migration – it is assumed that the net migration is 33% higher than in the baseline assumptions, in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• lower fertility - it is assumed that the fertility rates are lower 20% than in the baseline assumptions, in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• lower mortality - it is assumed that the mortality rates are decreased such that the life expectancy at birth will increase of about two years by 2070 when compared with the baseline assumptions.

Data are available by single year time interval, as follows:

• Projected population on 1 January by age and sex;
• Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, probabilities of dying and net migration levels;
• Projected life expectancy by age (in completed years) and sex.

Moreover, the demographic balances and indicators are available for the baseline projections and the five sensitive variants:

• Total numbers of the projected live births and deaths;
• Projected population structure indicators: proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median ages of the population (for each sex component).

The dataset at regional level is composed by the baseline population projections and covers all 1169 regions classified as NUTS level 3 corresponding to the NUTS-2016 classification (the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) and the 47 Statistical Regions (SR) agreed between European Commission and EFTA countries. Statistical regions are defined according to principles similar to those used in the establishment of the NUTS classification.

For all 1216 regions NUTS-3 level, data are available by single year time interval as follows:

• Projected population on 1 January by age and sex;
• Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, probabilities of dying and net migration levels;
• Projected deaths by age and sex;
• Projected life expectancy by age (reached during the year) and sex, which is computed according to the method described in the Technical note - Alternative life table (with annex)

In addition to the baseline projections, datasets on projected population at regional level are available for two sensitivity tests:

• no migration - it is assumed that migration is zero for both international and internal components in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• no inter-regional migration - it is assumed that only internal migration is zero in each year of the entire horizon of projections.

Moreover, the demographic balances and indicators are available for the baseline projections and the two sensitive variants:

• Total numbers of the projected live births by sex and deaths;
• Projected population structure indicators: proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median ages of the population (for each sex component).

The additional dataset called ‘Short-term update of the projected population (2022-2032)’ [proj_stp22] was published on 28 September 2022. While EUROPOP2019 remain the main set of reference for population projections, this new dataset includes updates of baseline projections for the total population, population in the age group 15 to 74 years (considered as the population in the working-age group), and its share in the total population. In addition, two sensitivity tests are carried out – high and very high number of refugees – by introducing in the baseline projections a shock due to the mass-influx of refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine, and who have received temporary protection in the EU countries.

The updated EUROPOP2019 projections were constructed from cumulative sums of weighted averages of annual population changes of two series: the original EUROPOP2019 projection and a new short-term population projection computed from the latest available data over the period of 10 years.

The two sensitivity tests were built on the following assumptions:

• High number of refugees sensitivity test – assumes that the influx of refugees occurs during 2022 only, and is followed by annual returns at a constant rate such that at the end of 2031 the remaining number of refugees is 10% of the total influx in 2022;
• Very high number of refugees sensitivity test – assumes that the influx of refugees occurs during 2022 and 2023, and is followed by annual returns at a constant rate such that at the end of 2031 the remaining number of refugees is 15% of the cumulated influx in 2022 and 2023.

The territorial breakdown of the countries is according to the (EU) Regulation No 1260/2013 on European demographic statistics.

The regional breakdown of the EU27 countries is according to the Commission Regulation (EU) 2016/2066 related to the establishment of a common classification of territorial units for statistics (NUTS), known as NUTS-2016 classification. For EFTA countries, the regional breakdown corresponds to Statistical Regions, which are defined according to principles similar to those used in the establishment of the NUTS classification.

Demography.

EUROPOP2019

Base population on 1 January 2019 is the population of the country as reported in the annual demographic statistics data collection run by Eurostat.

Age-specific fertility rate is defined as the ratio between the number of live births occurring to women between ages x and x+1 and the number of person-years lived by women between  ages x and x+1, over one calendar year.

Probability of dying is defined as the ratio between the number of persons who reached the exact age x and the number among them who did not reached the age x+1, over one calendar year.

The projected life expectancy by age in completed years is derived from the life expectancy as from the period-cohort life table (computed using the assumed probabilities of dying) by applying an estimated age-specific gap between these two measures of life expectancy. The projected life expectancy by age in completed years is provided for the convenience of the users, but it is not the outcome of a regular computation of a life table and it represent only an approximated measure of a life expectancy computed on age-period mortality data. More information in the Technical Notes.

Median age is defined as the age x such that exactly one half of the population is older than x and the other half is younger than x.

Proportion of population in each of the main demographic age groups is the number of - respectively - children (0–14 years), young persons (0-19 years), two age groups for persons in the working-age (15–64 years, and 20-64 years ), elderly (65 years and over) and oldest-old persons (80 years and over) in the total population.

   Young-age-dependency ratio - two ratios are available according to the age groups used to classify the persons as 'young' and in the 'working-age':

1) the young-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 0-14 over the number of working-age persons (15-64 years);

2) the young-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 0-19 over the number of working-age persons (20-64 years);

   Old-age-dependency ratio - two ratios are available according to the age group used to define the persons in the 'working-age':

1) the old-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 years and more over the number of working-age persons (15-64 years);

2) the old-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 years and more over the number of working-age persons (20-64 years);

   Total age-dependency ratio is defined as the sum of young- and old- age dependency ratios, based on the common age group used to define the persons in the 'working age'.

Short-term update of EUROPOP2019 population projections

Base population on 1 January 2022 is the total population of the country as reported to Eurostat by the national statistical authorities in the latest annual demographic DEMOBAL data collection.

Population in the working age is defined as the population of the country in the age group 15-74 years old.

Proportion of population in the working age is define as the ratio between the population in the working age group 15-74 years old and the total population, expressed as percentage.

The statistical unit varies according to the data type as follows:

• Person - for data referring to the projected population and net migration;
• Number of events - for data referring to the projected number of live births and deaths;

Statistical population is the projected total population on 1^st January as defined in 3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions.

EU Members States and EFTA countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland)

EUROPOP2019: from the year 2019 to 2100.

Short-term update of EUROPOP2019 population projections: from year the 2022 to 2032. To ensure the same staring year 2019 the latest population data transmitted to Eurostat following the release of EUROPOP2019 population projections are included as well. These transmitted data refer to the years from 2019 to 2022.

EUROPOP2019: 1 January 2019.

Short-term update of EUROPOP2019 population projections: 1 January 2022.

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EUROPOP2019

• April 2020: release of baseline projections and 'no migration' sensitivity test.
• July 2020: release of the lower migration, higher migration, lower fertility and lower mortality sensitivity tests.
• January-March 2021: release of the baseline regional population projections.

Short-term update of EUROPOP2019 population projections

• 28 September 2022: release of baseline scenario and two sensitivity tests: high number of refugees and very high number of refugees. 

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Statistics Explained article on Eurostat website

Eurostat website under the folder 'Population projections' of the 'Population and social conditions" domain:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography-migration-projections/population-projections-data

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Documentation on methodology available in annexes.

Additional methodological questions can be addressed to: ESTAT-Pop-Projections@ec.europa.eu

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Population projections help the public, statisticians and policymakers understand population dynamics. They contribute to informed debates on demographic and societal changes.

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See annexes

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Eurostat database.

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