Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Unit F2: Population and migration.

Eurostat - Office statistique de l’Union européenne

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L-2721 Luxembourg

EUROPOP2019 are the latest Eurostat population projections produced at national and subnational levels for 31 countries: all 27 European Union (EU) Member States and four European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries, covering the time horizon from 2019 to 2100.

Population projections are 'what-if scenario' that aim to show the hypothetically developments of the population size and its structure based on a sets of assumptions for fertility, mortality and net migration; they are presented for a long time period that covers more than a half-century (50 years).

The datasets at national level are composed by the baseline population projections and five sensitivity tests, namely:

• no migration – it is assumed that the net migration is set to zero in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• lower migration – it is assumed that the net migration is 33% lower than in the baseline assumptions, in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• higher migration – it is assumed that the net migration is 33% higher than in the baseline assumptions, in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• lower fertility - it is assumed that the fertility rates are lower 20% than in the baseline assumptions, in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• lower mortality - it is assumed that the mortality rates are decreased such that the life expectancy at birth will increase of about two years by 2070 when compared with the baseline assumptions.

Data are available by single year time interval, as follows:

• Projected population on 1 January by age and sex;
• Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, probabilities of dying and net migration levels;
• Projected life expectancy by age (in completed years) and sex.

Moreover, the demographic balances and indicators are available:

• Total numbers of the projected live births and deaths;
• Projected population structure indicators: proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median ages of the population (for each sex component).

The dataset at regional level is composed by the baseline population projections and covers all 1169 regions classified as NUTS level 3 corresponding to the NUTS-2016 classification (the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) and the 47 Statistical Regions (SR) agreed between European Commission and EFTA countries. Statistical regions are defined according to principles similar to those used in the establishment of the NUTS classification.

For all 1216 regions NUTS-3 level, data are available by single year time interval as follows:

• Projected population on 1 January by age and sex;
• Assumptions on future age-specific fertility rates, probabilities of dying and net migration levels;
• Projected deaths by age and sex;
• Projected life expectancy by age (reached during the year) and sex, which is computed according to the method described in the Technical note - Alternative life table (with annex)

Moreover, the demographic balances and indicators are available:

• Total numbers of the projected live births by sex and deaths;
• Projected population structure indicators: proportions of broad age groups in total population, age dependency ratios and median ages of the population (for each sex component).

In addition to the baseline projections, datasets on projected population at regional level are available for two sensitivity tests:

• no migration - it is assumed that migration is zero for both international and internal components in each year of the entire horizon of projections;
• no inter-regional migration - it is assumed that only internal migration is zero in each year of the entire horizon of projections.

The territorial breakdown of the countries is according to the (EU) Regulation No 1260/2013 on European demographic statistics.

The regional breakdown of the EU27 countries is according to the Commission Regulation (EU) 2016/2066 related to the establishment of a common classification of territorial units for statistics (NUTS), known as NUTS-2016 classification. For EFTA countries, the regional breakdown corresponds to Statistical Regions, which are defined according to principles similar to those used in the establishment of the NUTS classification.

Demography.

Base population on 1 January 2019 is the population of the country as reported in the annual demographic statistics data collection run by Eurostat.

Age-specific fertility rate is defined as the ratio between the number of live births occurring to women between ages x and x+1 and the number of person-years lived by women between ages x and x+1, over one calendar year.

Probability of dying is defined as the ratio between the number of persons who reached the exact age x and the number among them who did not reached the age x+1, over one calendar year.

The projected life expectancy by age in completed years is derived from the life expectancy as from the period-cohort life table (computed using the assumed probabilities of dying) by applying an estimated age-specific gap between these two measures of life expectancy. The projected life expectancy by age in completed years is provided for the convenience of the users, but it is not the outcome of a regular computation of a life table and it represent only an approximated measure of a life expectancy computed on age-period mortality data. More information in the Technical Notes.

Median age is defined as the age x such that exactly one half of the population is older than x and the other half is younger than x.

Proportion of population in each of the main demographic age groups is the number of - respectively - children (0–14 years), young persons (0-19 years), two age groups for persons in the working-age (15–64 years, and 20-64 years ), elderly (65 years and over) and oldest-old persons (80 years and over) in the total population.

Young-age-dependency ratio - two ratios are available according to the age groups used to classify the persons as 'young' and in the 'working-age':

1) the young-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 0-14 over the number of working-age persons (15-64 years);

2) the young-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 0-19 over the number of working-age persons (20-64 years);

Old-age-dependency ratio - two ratios are available according to the age group used to define the persons in the 'working-age':

1) the old-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 years and more over the number of working-age persons (15-64 years);

2) the old-age-dependency ratio - defined as the ratio between the number of persons aged 65 years and more over the number of working-age persons (20-64 years);

Total age-dependency ratio is defined as the sum of young- and old- age dependency ratios, based on the common age group used to define the persons in the 'working age'.

The statistical unit varies according to the data type as follows:

• Person - for data referring to the projected population and net migration;
• Number of events - for data referring to the projected number of live births and deaths;

Statistical population is the projected total population on 1^st January as defined in 3.4. Statistical concepts and definitions.

EU Members States and EFTA countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland)

From year 2019 to 2100.

1 January 2019.

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April 2020: release of baseline projections and 'no migration' sensitivity test.

July 2020: release of the lower migration, higher migration, lower fertility and lower mortality sensitivity tests.

January-March 2021: release of the baseline regional population projections.

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Statistics Explained article on Eurostat website

Eurostat website under the folder 'Population projections' of the 'Population and social conditions" domain:

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography-migration-projections/population-projections-data

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Additional data on immigration and emigration can be provided upon request by contacting: ESTAT-Pop-Projections@ec.europa.eu

Documentation on methodology available in annexes.

Additional methodological questions can be addressed to: ESTAT-Pop-Projections@ec.europa.eu

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Population projections help the public, statisticians and policymakers understand population dynamics. They contribute to informed debates on demographic and societal changes.

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See annexes

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Eurostat database.

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